Book review- Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Book by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein

“Most of us, most of the time, live with the unquestioned belief that the world looks as it does because that’s the way it is."

Understanding the distinction between bias and noise in systems is crucial for our life, mind and peace of heart! 

I decided to buy this book on the spot for two compelling reasons: first, my outstanding experience with Daniel Kahneman's earlier work, "Thinking fast and slow," made me eager for more. Second, the pervasive noisy environments surrounding us highlight the need for insights to help me navigate decisions more effectively.

In "Noise," Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony illustrate how noise plays a significant role in causing errors across various fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, police behaviour, food safety, bail decisions, airport security checks, strategy, and personnel selection. Although noise is present whenever people make judgments and decisions, individuals and organisations often remain unaware of the influence chance has on their judgments and actions. The book explains the causes of these noises and suggests ways to minimise them.

In their discussion of AI and the noise it generates, the authors acknowledge algorithmic bias, but they significantly underestimate its extent. A crucial point they overlook is that algorithms do not merely replicate human biases; they amplify them—often to a drastic and unimaginable degree.

Overall, the book is divided into six parts:

1. Finding Noise
2. Your Mind is a Measuring Instrument
3. Noise in Predictive Judgments
4. How Noise Happens
5. Improving Judgments
6. Optimal Noise

The final section addresses what level of noise is tolerable and the realistic targets that can be achieved. It also presents strategies for reducing noise in various settings. Personal methods include training individuals to regularly consider viewpoints that differ from their own. Collective approaches involve effectively utilizing the expertise of a team assigned to make significant business decisions.

Just like the book captured my attention, I found myself deeply engaged in thought. It is a must-read but be prepared for the complex theories and analyses.


Quotes from the book-

“To understand error in judgment, we must understand both bias and noise.”

“It is more useful to pay attention to people who disagree with you than to pay attention to those who agree.”

“Life is often more complex than the stories we like to tell about it.”

“Judgment is not a synonym for thinking, and making accurate judgments is not a synonym for having good judgment.”

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?”